The present-day U.S. military qualifies by any measure as highly professional, much more so than its Cold War predecessor. Yet the purpose of today’s professionals is not to preserve peace but to fight unending wars in distant places. Intoxicated by a post-Cold War belief in its own omnipotence, the United States allowed itself to be drawn into a long series of armed conflicts, almost all of them yielding unintended consequences and imposing greater than anticipated costs. Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. forces have destroyed many targets and killed many people. Only rarely, however, have they succeeded in accomplishing their assigned political purposes. . . . [F]rom our present vantage point, it becomes apparent that the “Revolution of ‘89” did not initiate a new era of history. At most, the events of that year fostered various unhelpful illusions that impeded our capacity to recognize and respond to the forces of change that actually matter.

Andrew Bacevich


Friday, March 23, 2007

News & Views 03/23/07

REPORTS – LIFE IN IRAQ


Insurgency Paralyses Life in Diyala

Relentless violence in the Sunni-dominated province of Diyala, about 60km north-east of the capital, Baghdad, has hampered the delivery of humanitarian assistance to displaced families and has paralysed life there, local officials said. “Humanitarian aid is only trickling [into Diyala] as the security situation has deteriorated very much due to attacks by Sunni insurgents against US and Iraqi forces as well as violence between Sunni Muslims and Shia Muslims,” said Thari Mohammed al-Taie, head of the provincial office of the Ministry of Displacement and Migration. For months, Sunni insurgents have been slowly taking control of Diyala. Now, with violence apparently ebbing in Baghdad, Sunni insurgents believed to be loyal to al-Qaeda in Iraq have fled the capital and increased the intensity of their fight against US and Iraqi forces in Diyala as well as stepping up their attacks against Shias, according to local officials. Last June, the self-confessed former al-Qaeda in Iraq leader, Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi, was killed in a US airstrike near Baqouba, the capital of Diyala. Since then, the Islamic State of Iraq, another group with links to al-Qaeda, has claimed Baqouba as the capital of its self-proclaimed shadow government.


"I sell half of our monthly food ration to raise money to flee..."

Marwan Hussein, 31, is an unemployed displaced father who has resorted to selling half his monthly food rations to make money to flee Iraq. "We've tried different ways to survive in a dignified way," says Hussein, "but we've reached the end of the road now. We need to leave the country but we don't have money for that. We are all tired of living without government support. We are on our own."


Environmental Nightmare Drags On

Four years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and despite 22 billion dollars spent on recovery and reconstruction, Iraq's environment remains in disastrous shape. Industrial waste, hospital waste, fertilizer run-off from farming, as well as oil spills plague the two rivers that define the Mesopotamia region and which provide much of the irrigation and drinking water.


Video: Final Countdown for Baghdad's Children

Baghdad's last refuge for orphaned and traumatised children is in danger of closing later this month when it finally runs out of funds.


Oil-Rich Kirkuk At Melting Point As Factions Clash

Seven bombs detonating in the space of 35 minutes sent up clouds of black smoke over the centre of Kirkuk earlier this week. The explosions in Arab and Turkoman districts killed 12 people and injured 39 but exactly who was behind them is unclear. Kirkuk is a place where trust is in short supply. "I firmly predict there will be a rumour the Kurds were behind these bombings," sighs Rafat Hamarash, the head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, the Kurdish political party that largely controls the city. He said somebody wanted to stir up ethnic divisions between Kurd, Arab and Turkoman before they vote on the future of Kirkuk in nine months' time. Mr Hamarash is probably right about the motives for the latest attacks. The city is approaching a critical moment in its long history. In December, there is a referendum, its timing agreed under the Iraqi constitution, when 1.8 million people of Kirkuk province will vote on whether or not to join the highly autonomous Kurdish region that is already almost a separate state. Kurds will vote in favour and probably win; Arabs and Turkomans will vote against and lose. The Kirkuk issue is as notoriously divisive in Iraq as sovereignty over certain parts of Ireland used to be in British politics. Winston Churchill famously complained that, after all the political and military cataclysms of the First World War, the question of who should have "the dreary spires of Fermanagh and Tyrone", remained as ferociously contested as before the war. The control of Kirkuk divided Kurds from Arabs in Iraq under Saddam Hussein and continues to do so. The city is commonly called "a powder keg" though it has yet to explode. But that does not mean it will not happen and the referendum might just be the detonator for that explosion.


US Struggles to Avert Turkish Intervention in Northern Iraq

The US is scrambling to head off a "disastrous" Turkish military intervention in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq that threatens to derail the Baghdad security surge and open up a third front in the battle to save Iraq from disintegration. Senior Bush administration officials have assured Turkey in recent days that US forces will increase efforts to root out Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK) guerrillas enjoying safe haven in the Qandil mountains, on the Iraq-Iran-Turkey border. But Abdullah Gul, Turkey's foreign minister, MPs, military chiefs and diplomats say up to 3,800 PKK fighters are preparing for attacks in south-east Turkey - and Turkey is ready to hit back if the Americans fail to act. "We will do what we have to do, we will do what is necessary. Nothing is ruled out," Gul said. "I have said to the Americans many times: suppose there is a terrorist organisation in Mexico attacking America. What would you do?... We are hopeful. We have high expectations. But we cannot just wait forever." Turkish sources said "hot pursuit" special forces operations in Khaftanin and Qanimasi, northern Iraq, were already under way. Murat Karayilan, a PKK leader, said this week that a "mad war" was in prospect unless Ankara backed off. Several other factors are adding to the tension between the Nato partners: The firm Turkish belief that the US is playing a double game in northern Iraq. Officials say the CIA is covertly funding and arming the PKK's sister organisation, the Iran-based Kurdistan Free Life party, to destabilise the Iranian government. US acquiescence in plans to hold a referendum in oil-rich Kirkuk in northern Iraq. Turkey suspects Iraqi Kurds are seeking control of Kirkuk as a prelude to the creation of an independent Kurdistan. Plans by the US Congress to vote on a resolution blaming Turkey for genocide against the Armenians in 1915. Faruk Logoglu, a former ambassador to Washington, said that if the resolution passed, relations "could take generations to recover".


Shortage of Safe Water Risks Cholera in Iraq -U.N.

United Nations agencies working in Iraq warned on Thursday a chronic shortage of safe drinking water risks causing more child deaths and an outbreak of waterborne disease such as cholera during the summer. Four years after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, millions of Iraqi children still find that safe water is no easier to access, said a statement issued by leading U.N. aid agencies operating in Iraq. The agencies, whose offices are based in Amman, issued the statement to mark World Water Day. The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) said shortages of drinking water threatened to push up diarrhoea rates, particularly among children. Diarrhoea is already the second highest cause of child illness and death in Iraq, it said.


Reclaiming Homes, Iraqis Find Peril

Under the protective cover of the latest Baghdad security plan, begun Feb. 13 and dependent on the infusion of American troops into the capital, a small number of families who had fled their neighborhoods because of soaring sectarian violence are hesitantly returning and trying to reclaim their lives. Many are finding, however, that the threat of violence that drove them away in the first place remains very real. Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has made the resettlement of displaced people a primary goal of the new security plan. He has vowed to use force to uproot squatters who have seized abandoned houses and has even offered a financial incentive to displaced families who want to return: a payment of about $200, a hefty sum in this impoverished economy, to help cover moving costs and the replacement of lost, stolen or damaged belongings. It is an ambitious program, one that seeks to reverse the tide of sectarian cleansing that has driven a wedge between Sunni Arabs and Shiites, cleaved entire neighborhoods and torn families from their moorings. The Iraqi government said last week that about 2,000 families had returned to their homes in Baghdad since the security plan was put in place, many in neighborhoods that had experienced some of the worst sectarian cleansing. Though hundreds of thousands of Baghdad residents remain displaced, officials say the steady flow of people returning is an indication that the security plan could eventually work. But the government's figure of 2,000 is open to question. There has been no rigorous and systematic resettlement survey, so the number is based largely on anecdotal evidence from Iraqi security forces posted at checkpoints. The figure does not appear to account for the families who have returned home only to leave again. But it also seems to omit families who have slipped under the government's radar to avoid unwanted attention, particularly from sectarian death squads. What is certain, however, is that nearly all displaced families have decided to remain where they are until conditions improve, crammed into relatives' homes, rental apartments and shelters.


REPORTS – IRAQI MILITIAS, POLITICIANS, POWER BROKERS


Sadr Aide Held Over Killing of U.S. Soldiers

U.S. forces have captured a senior aide to anti-American Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr over the killing of five U.S. soldiers in the Iraqi holy city of Kerbala in January, the U.S. military said on Thursday.


U.S. Military Frees Iraqi Cleric's Aide

The U.S. military Wednesday released a senior member of Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada Sadr's movement at the request of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki. The decision, officials said, was made with the hope of easing tensions between Sadr's Al Mahdi militia and U.S.-led forces in Iraq. Sheik Ahmed Shibani, who had been in prison for 2 1/2 years, was handed over to the office of the Shiite prime minister. "In consultation with the prime minister and following his request, coalition leaders determined that Sheik Shibani, who was detained since 2004, could play a potentially important role in helping to moderate extremism and foster reconciliation in Iraq," U.S. military spokesman Lt. Col. Christopher Garver said in a statement. The sheik, wearing a checkered black and white kaffiyeh, smiled with Maliki for a photo that was later distributed by the prime minister's office. Sadr's militia had repeatedly demanded Shibani's release. The onetime spokesman for Sadr was jailed by U.S. forces in September 2004 in the Shiite shrine city of Najaf after a three-week battle between Al Mahdi militiamen and the Americans. In 2006, an Iraqi court dismissed weapons possession charges against Shibani, but the U.S. military did not free him. Sadr followers, who hold 30 parliamentary seats and six ministries, castigated Washington for not freeing Shibani sooner. "They were supposed to release Sheik Ahmed Shibani seven months ago after he was tried by an Iraqi court and he was found not guilty of the charges pressed against him. He was arrested for a political reason and he remained so for seven more months also for political reasons," lawmaker Salih Agaili said.


Splintering of Shiite Militia May Mean More Iraq Violence

The violent Shiite militia known as the Mahdi Army is breaking into splinter groups. As many as 3,000 gunmen are now financed directly by Iran and no longer loyal to the firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, adding a potentially even more deadly element to Iraq's violent mix. Two senior militia commanders told The Associated Press that hundreds of these fighters have crossed into Iran for training by the elite Quds force, a branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guard thought to have trained Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon and Muslim fighters in Bosnia and Afghanistan. The breakup is an ominous development at a time when U.S. and Iraqi forces are working to defeat religious-based militias and secure Iraq under government control. While al-Sadr's forces have battled the coalition repeatedly, including pitched battles in 2004, they've mostly stayed in the background during the latest offensive. At the Pentagon, a military official confirmed there were signs the Mahdi Army was splintering. Some were breaking away to attempt a more conciliatory approach to the Americans and the Iraqi government, others moving in a more extremist direction, the official said. However, the official, who was not authorized to be quoted by name on the topic, was not aware of direct Iranian recruitment and financing of Mahdi Army members.


Iraq Vice President Calls for Insurgent Talks

The Vice President of Iraq yesterday called for talks to be opened with insurgent groups in an attempt to end sectarian violence. Tareq al-Hashemi said that, with the exception of al-Qa'eda, all parties should be invited to the table to air their views. "I do believe there is no way forward but to talk to everybody," he said, adding that militias were "just part of the Iraqi communities". "I think all should be invited, should be called to sit down around the table to discuss their fears, their reservations," he said, adding that al-Qa'eda was "not very much willing, in fact, to talk to anybody". In a BBC interview he explained that many Iraqis were currently "annoyed" because coalition forces in their country were "damaging the dignity of the Iraqis, damaging the sovereignty of the Iraqis". "But when these forces pull out, withdraw from the Iraqis, definitely they will be a genuine partner in the political process," he said while stressing his belief that the coalition forces should stay in Iraq until further notice to tackle the sectarian violence between Sunni and Shia factions, which causes hundreds of deaths in Iraq each month.


REPORTS – US/UK/OTHERS IN IRAQ


VIDEO: U.S. Soldiers Shooting Iraqi Civilians


Freed Sadrist Meets with Maliki

Ahmed Shibani, a senior aide to Muqtada al-Sadr, publicly met with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki following Shibani’s release from US custody, the BBC reports. Shibani was arrested by US forces in Najaf not long after the US offensive there in August 2004. At the time the US military described him as a major threat to Iraq's security, according to the BBC report. He was released Wednesday. Although the Iraqi courts declared that there was not enough evidence to hold him, the US continued to detain him in a military prison, al-Muhit reports in Arabic. For the last two years Maliki had been lobbying for his release, al-Muhit writes. In an about-face, Coalition forces announced Wednesday in a press release that “Coalition leaders determined that Shibani, who was detained since 2004, could play a potentially important role in helping to moderate extremism and foster reconciliation in Iraq.”


Inspector General Details Failures Of Iraq Reconstruction

The U.S. government was unprepared for the extensive nation-building required after it invaded Iraq, and at each juncture where it could have adjusted its efforts, it failed even to understand the problems it faced, according to the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction. In a stinging, wide-ranging assessment of U.S. reconstruction efforts, Stuart W. Bowen Jr. said that in the days after the invasion, the Defense Department had no strategy for restoring either government institutions or infrastructure. And in the years since, other agencies joined the effort without an overall plan and without a structure in place to organize and execute a task of such magnitude. Lines of authority remained unclear in the reconstruction effort. With a demand for speed and a shortage of government personnel, much of the oversight was turned over to the contractors doing the work. There was little coordination among the various agencies. The result was a series of missed opportunities to address the unraveling situation, Bowen said. "Many layers of management . . . made it difficult to determine who had ultimate authority over money, people and projects," he said. Bowen, who briefed reporters yesterday, plans to present his report today to the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. The report makes nine recommendations, including one for legislation to organize departments and agencies involved in postwar operations along the lines of the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act, which integrated the service branches, strengthened the joint staff and eliminated operational overlap. The report suggested a similar process to meld reconstruction planning and execution by the State and Defense departments and the U.S. Agency for International Development. Other recommendations include improving contracting and procurement guidelines, involving people who are familiar with a region, using local contractors and vendors, better planning of short- and long-term reconstruction programs, and establishing guidelines on the length of tours for those working on reconstruction projects. For the first time, the report lays out a timeline documenting the paucity of planning from the beginning of the war in Iraq, noting what was needed when and describing how the scale of reconstruction grew once the United States was in Iraq. It details how Congress provided vast amounts of money with little idea of how it was being spent. The push to get things done quickly meant turning much of the reconstruction over to contractors with little oversight from the government, as security worsened. And the lack of coordination magnified every shortcoming.


COMMENTARY


Thrown To The Assassins

They cheered the U.S. invasion; they offered to help, signed on as translators, risked everything they had to work for the United States. But when they had to run for their lives, America slammed the door. On the day the American tanks rolled into Baghdad, Abather Abdul Hussein and his wife, Balqes Abdel Mohammed, threw flowers. Literally. After a lifetime of turmoil and tyranny, the couple fervently believed the invasion would bring peace. Abather joined U.S. "democratization" efforts, such as a project to create a governing council for his neighborhood, and he occasionally ended up in the good-news Iraq stories that still seemed plausible in those days; one U.S. paper ran a five-column photo of him perched on a classroom chair surrounded by American soldiers, with a story about the "new Iraq." These days, Abather and his young family are among the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who have fled in fear for their lives. After months spent dodging insurgents who had targeted them for supporting the Americans, he and Balqes are relieved to have escaped—and bitter, like thousands of fellow refugees, that the superpower for which they risked their lives has abandoned them. A short man who bundles his shattered body in layers against the desert's winter chill, the 34-year-old Abather is polite and relaxed, with an easy smile. An engaging conversationalist even in broken English, he loves to talk about Baghdad, his infant daughter, and his wife, an outspoken woman several years his senior, whom he calls a genius. "When we met she was a professor at Baghdad University," he boasts. "I was her student. When she walked into a room, hundreds of people would stand to pay her respect." Considering that his life savings will run out in two months, that he can't work legally in Jordan, and that he could be deported at any moment, Abather is remarkably stoic, though the anxiety leaks out in tics. He chain-smokes cheap Craven A cigarettes, crushing the charred filters in an overflowing ashtray; when Balqes complains, he sheepishly offers that "smoking is my only work." It's not quite true—his one other job during the past 18 months has been recounting his nightmare, over and over again, to border guards, embassy workers, and aid agencies. In December, he reluctantly told it to me, pulling documents from a worn leather folder to corroborate the details.


White Hot Rage

I have long suspected that Blackwater Security and L. Paul Bremer (what's his nickname? Scooter? Pookie?) were responsible for the insurgency in Iraq and subsequently the death of my son, Casey. I am reading Jeremy Scahill's new book: Blackwater and it is doing nothing to decrease my suspicions, only confirm them.


Iraq's Curse: Homegrown Brutality and Foreign Abuse

The fourth anniversary of the American-led war on Iraq this week has generated considerable analysis of the prospects for Iraqi stability, security and well-being. Most of what we read and hear is unsatisfying, because it examines the last four years in Iraq, and sees the country mainly through the lens of America's presence and priorities. We should be exploring a much longer timeframe by acknowledging the combined suffocating burden of local tyranny and Western imperial and military adventurism. When the British and French a century ago configured the Middle East to suit their imperial needs and sensibilities, they left behind an embarrassing mess that continues to erupt into chronic violence in many lands. Arab tyrants took the baton of their own distorted statehoods from their European colonial craftsmen and between the 1950s and 1970s turned their young, often novel, countries into ugly police states. When our disturbed and violent region sent waves of bombers to attack foreign targets, the Americans led the new charge into the Middle East after September 11, 2001, once again pledging to transform sick societies into healthy democracies.

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